Message from the President – ​​January 2026

The year 2026 marks the beginning of a decisive period for the Portuguese and European energy sector. After years marked by legislative ambition, increasingly demanding environmental targets, and successive European regulatory packages, we are now entering the testing phase. The phase where it's not enough to announce: it's necessary to deliver. The phase where commitments are not enough: results are needed. The phase where electricity—clean, reliable, competitive—ceases to be merely a technical component of the economy and becomes the structural condition for its viability. This is the environment in which Portugal, our Associates, and APREN will enter 2026.

Over the past decade, the European energy transition has evolved from a public policy project to a civilizational project. The accumulated crises—the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, energy inflation, supply chain turbulence, global reindustrialization, technological competition, and trade tensions between major powers—clearly demonstrated that the energy model of European democracies was not only unsustainable from a climate perspective, but also economically vulnerable, geopolitically insecure, and technologically limited in the face of the digital and industrial acceleration of other regions of the world.

Today, energy is no longer just a sector. It is the cornerstone of industrial policies. It is the engine of competitiveness. It is the infrastructure for economic security. It is the tool for maintaining European political sovereignty. And, increasingly, it is the technological frontier where it is decided who leads and who follows.

1. The macroeconomic framework for 2026: fragile stability, persistent risks, and structural pressure on competitiveness

Europe enters 2026 with mixed signals. Some indicators suggest that, after years of profound turmoil, the European economy has found some equilibrium. Inflation has receded to levels close to 2%, pressure on energy markets has eased, and the ECB has begun, albeit belatedly, a cycle of interest rate cuts. However, Europe continues to grow weakly, too slowly for the demands of its global competitiveness, with the IMF projecting only 1.6% growth for 2026.

The continent faces three structural weaknesses: (i) structurally more expensive energy than in the US and China; (ii) persistently low and divergent productivity; (iii) sharply declining demographics, which limits workforce, innovation, and fiscal capacity.

The European labor market remains tight, but with limited growth. Business investment continues to be weak, especially in energy-intensive sectors. Credit remains more expensive than in the previous decade, and the fragmentation of global value chains, exacerbated by tensions such as Chinese export controls on critical minerals and electronics technology, is putting pressure on Europe's ability to compete in the industrial, digital, and energy transition.

2. The geopolitical dimension: the most unstable energy world in the last four decades

This is perhaps the most decisive factor for the energy sector in 2026. The world has entered a prolonged phase of geopolitical volatility, where energy has once again become an instrument of power and blackmail.

The war in Ukraine remains the most significant structural disruption to European energy security since the 1970s. Instability in the Middle East, particularly in the Straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, creates constant risks to maritime transport and global oil and LNG flows. The Red Sea faces regular attacks, disrupting value chains and increasing transport costs. Strategic competition between the United States and China has escalated into an open dispute over control of critical technologies: semiconductors, rare earth elements, solar photovoltaics, and batteries.

The concentration of mineral refining in a few countries exacerbates uncertainty: the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that by 2025, more than 80% of the world's refining of critical minerals will be controlled by just three countries, with China holding more than 70% in several categories.

Added to these risks are hybrid threats: sophisticated cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, digital disinformation campaigns, influence operations, and emotional manipulation. Energy has become not only an economic asset but also a psychological battleground.

3. The digital revolution and the new demand for electricity: data centers, AI, and the silent energy shock

While Europe struggles to stabilize, the global economy is undergoing a transformation that regulators and planners have struggled to keep up with: the explosion in demand for electricity linked to artificial intelligence, advanced computing, and data centers .

The IEA predicts that electricity consumption in these centers will triple by 2030. In the US, they could reach 14% of all national electricity within four years. Global investment in digital infrastructure, almost $600 billion in 2025, has already surpassed investment in upstream fossil fuels.

In practice, the world is witnessing the birth of a large-scale electricity economy. Artificial intelligence (AI) is today simultaneously the greatest accelerator and the greatest stress test for modern electricity systems. Countries that manage to offer clean, reliable, competitive, and abundant energy will become hubs of digital innovation. Those that fail to do so will become consumer markets, dependent and with less economic and consequently political autonomy.

Portugal has natural attributes that position it as an attractive destination for these investments — but it lacks network capacity. A data center can be moved in months, while a power line takes years. This is one of the major strategic priorities for 2026.

4. Portugal in 2026: above-average growth, but vulnerable to structural delays

Portugal forecasts a comparatively more favorable macroeconomic position for 2026. GDP will grow by 2.1%, according to the Bank of Portugal's Economic Bulletin, above the eurozone average. The labor market remains dynamic, inflation stabilizes, and the economy benefits from the final impact of the Recovery and Resilience Plan (PRR) and the PT2030 program.

But this good news masks a deep vulnerability: the country increasingly depends on its ability to transform renewable energies into real competitiveness. This is the clearest, most strategic, and most sustainable comparative advantage that Portugal possesses in the global economy. Paradoxically, it is also the area where the country risks falling behind the most.

The constraints persist, with no government solution in sight: (i) slow and uneven licensing; (ii) saturated electricity grids; (iii) shortage of qualified technical labor; (iv) intensifying fiscal and regulatory uncertainty; (v) delays in the implementation and expansion of energy storage; (vi) absence of robust market instruments for sovereignly guaranteed PPAs and CFDs; (vii) absence of capacity mechanisms; and (viii) institutional weaknesses that limit predictability.

If Portugal wants to consolidate its position as a leading country in renewable energy, it needs to transform this natural advantage into a competitive advantage. And that requires speed, clarity, and consistency.

5. The uncomfortable truth: Portugal is losing ground to Spain — and it can't ignore it

This point is unavoidable. Even with an advantage in natural and geographical conditions that is comparable or superior, Portugal has progressed much more slowly than Spain in almost all indicators that count towards energy competitiveness, of which I highlight: (i) it is aggressively expanding the RESP; (ii) it is attracting multiple gigafactories for batteries; (iii) it is structuring industrial value chains; (iv) it is accelerating hybrid and storage projects; (v) it is intensely discussing capacity mechanisms in Brussels; (vi) it has strengthened internal interconnections; (vii) it has simplified licensing more effectively; and (viii) it has become a priority destination for investment in green industry and solar-wind data centers

Portugal doesn't have less sun, less wind, less stability, or less technical capacity. But it does, unjustifiably, have less speed and less capacity for execution.

The consequence is clear: if this trend is not reversed, the country risks becoming a residual beneficiary of Iberian industrial capacity, losing projects to its neighbor not for lack of merit, but for lack of an adequate institutional response.

6. The legacy of the 2025 Iberian blackout: a wake-up call that cannot be ignored

The blackout of April 2025, which left more than 50 million people in the Iberian Peninsula without electricity, was a dramatic reminder that, to generate benefits for energy consumers, electricity systems with a high incorporation of renewable energy require robust electricity grids, integrated flexibility, storage, and deep digitalization.

The conclusions of ENTSO-E were unequivocal: (i) the transition is not just about installing renewables; (ii) it is about ensuring that the system can maintain, integrate and manage them in real time; (iii) it is about reinforcing lines, substations and electrical interconnections; (iv) it is about anticipating peaks, congestion and systemic failures; (v) it is about ensuring operational resilience in a system increasingly exposed to climate and digital volatility.

Portugal and Spain cannot continue to react after the fact. They need to anticipate and act beforehand.

7. The ten strategic pillars of APREN: the center of gravity of national competitiveness

In this demanding context, APREN's ten strategic axes take on an even more crucial role. They are not merely technical priorities for the sector; they are, essentially, economic priorities for the country.

1. Deep electrification of consumption – transport, industry, buildings and services;
2. Simplifying and accelerating licensing — genuine, binding, and digital;
3. Strengthening social acceptance — transparency, participation and territorial benefits;
4. Rapid integration into RESP and structural expansion of the network;
5. Robust electricity markets — PPAs, CFDs, system services and pay-for-capacity mechanisms;
6. Mobilizing private financing — with fiscal and regulatory stability;
7. Optimizing investment in hybrids, storage (batteries and pumping), and renewable fuels of non-biological origin;
8. Resilient value chains with adequate logistics, industry and maintenance;
9. Qualification and retention of technical talent;
10. Permanent geopolitical and regulatory adaptation. Anticipation instead of reaction.

These pillars are the foundation of APREN's strategic vision and are also the path to the sustained economic growth that Portugal needs to guarantee in this decade.

8. The invisible challenge: public communication in a time of energy misinformation

No energy strategy will succeed if it is not understood, accepted, and supported by society. The transition will not fail due to a lack of technology, but rather due to a lack of trust. The sector currently faces distorted narratives, amplified fears, and misperceptions, often fueled by organized disinformation campaigns, as described by Giuliano da Empoli in The Engineers of Chaos .

Portugal has, until now, been relatively immune to the anti-renewable energy movements that have grown in other European countries. But the signs of tension are increasing, and ignoring them would be the biggest mistake we could make.

Clear, educational, transparent, well-founded communication that is close to people and communities is now a central component of energy security, not an accessory. APREN will reinforce this dimension as an integral part of its mission.

9. The 6 fundamental pillars on which APREN organizes its operations:

1. Member satisfaction, standing by their side with technical support, dialogue, and effective representation;
2. Financial Sustainability, managing recurring and non-recurring resources responsibly, ensuring a solid and sustainable financial foundation;
3. Organizational efficiency, acting effectively and efficiently, promoting agile processes and digital tools with the incorporation of artificial intelligence tools;
4. Learning and Knowledge, producing information and sharing useful and strategic knowledge for the sector;
5. Amplifying Communication: Communicating assertively, combating misinformation, promoting renewable causes, and continuously seeking to increase social and stakeholder .
6. Aligning stakeholders by identifying and regularly updating key public and private actors with an impact on or interest in the energy transition, developing cooperative relationships with key entities, and promoting synergies around common objectives.

10. What Portugal must do: urgency, precision and ambition

Portugal has today a rare, and perhaps unrepeatable, opportunity to position itself as a leading country in the European electricity economy. This leadership depends on six collective decisions: (i) strengthening networks with the same ambition with which we install renewables. Without a network, there is no electrification. Without electrification, there is no competitiveness; (ii) simplifying licensing in a real, not symbolic way. Binding deadlines, digital processes, inter-institutional clarification; (iii) guaranteeing regulatory and fiscal stability. Investment does not fear technical risks, but it does fear political risks; (iv) attracting industry, data, and innovation with clean and secure electricity. Data centers , renewable fuels of non-biological origin, and clean heavy industry all require predictability; (v) developing human capital. Without technicians, operators, and installers, there is no transition; (vi) communicating with truth, dialogue, and emotional intelligence. The transition, in this case an energy revolution, will only advance if it is understood in order to be accepted.

11. Conclusion: informed hope, collective action, national ambition

Portugal has structural conditions that many European countries would give anything to have: sun, wind, water, biomass, stability, social acceptance, technical knowledge, European reputation, and a mature and committed business community.

What's lacking isn't potential, but speed, consistency, confidence, and the ability to execute.

APREN will continue, as it always has, to stand alongside its members and the country, with rigor, vision, and responsibility. We will continue to defend policies that strengthen competitiveness, promote investment, and guarantee clean, reliable, and accessible energy for all companies and people.

2026 will be a decisive year. And Portugal's economic, social, technological, and environmental future will depend on how well the country transforms this decade of transition into a decade of opportunity.

We firmly believe that Portugal can lead. Now is the time to do so, because Portugal needs our energy.